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THE PROFITABLENESS OF HYBRID SOLAR VEHICLES (HSV)

diverse


the profitableness of hybrid solar vehicles (HSV)


List of the used symbols

Latin letters:

-the total cost of a classical car, powered by internal combustion engine, [€ / ICE car]



-the total cost of a HSV, [€ / HSV]

-the cost of the transport service in the case ICE, [€/ km ICE]

-the cost of the transport service with HSV [€/ km HSV]

-the investment cost of the ICE transport service, [€ / km ICE]

-the consumption cost of the ICE transport service, [€ / km ICE]

-the operation-maintenance cost of the ICE transport service, [€ / km ICE]

-the investment cost of the HSV transport service, [€ / km HSV]

-the consumption cost of the HSV transport service, [€ / km HSV]

-the operation-maintenance cost of the HSV transport service, [€ / km HSV]

-the investment cost of the ICE car, [€/car ICE]

-the consumption cost of the ICE car, [€/car ICE]

-the operation-maintenance cost of the ICE car, [€/car ICE]

-the investment cost of the HSV, [€/ HSV]

-the consumption cost of the HSV, [€ / HSV]

-the operation-maintenance cost of the HSV, [€/ HSV]

-the operation-maintenance ratio of HSV car service, (eq. 8);

-the operation-maintenance ratio of ICE car service, (eq. 7)

-the unitary fuel consumption of ICE, [l/100km ICE]

-the unitary fuel cost, [€ / l fuel]

-the fuel reduction ratio of HSV, (eq. 10);

-the operation-maintenance ratio of ICE car product, (eq. 11);

-the operation-maintenance ratio of HSV product, (eq. 12);

- the state unitary subsidy of HSV program, [€/ 100 km]

Greek letters:

-the total life cycle of an ICE car, [km ICE / ICE car]

-the total life cycle of a HSV, [km HSV / HSV car]

Subscripts:

I-investment

C- consumption

p – product

s – service

OM - operation-maintenance

f – fuel

HSV – hybrid solar vehicle

superscripts:

ICE – internal combustion engine

HSV – hybrid solar vehicle


1.    & 121d34b nbsp; Introduction


The purpose of this paper is to analyze mathematically the conditions when HSV could be profitable. Starting on this way, we know that presently the classical cars are cheaper than HSV. This reality can be changed not so late in the future because of some tendencies we see:

In this case

[€ / km] (19)


7.    & 121d34b nbsp; Mathematical modeling, Results and discussion


In the reference papers [1, 20] we found reasons to consider ; ; ;

€/l fuel.

These data are argued below. From [20] we can read: “Hybrid vehicles do cost more than their gasoline-only counterparts. On average, the price premium is $2,500 to $3,000. Buyers, however, do have the benefit of a $2,000 federal tax deduction for purchasing a hybrid as part of the Internal Revenue Service’s Clean Fuel Vehicle deduction.
The deduction, which was put into place as an incentive for consumers to consider this new technology, was scheduled to decline gradually beginning in 2004 and eventually be phased out. Congress has extended this credit, however, offering up to a $2,000 tax credit on hybrids placed into service in 2004 and 2005. The credit drops to $500 for 2006.

Boughey received the $2,000 federal deduction as well as a state deduction of $3,600, which was calculated based on his purchase of a hybrid as well as on the vehicle he replaced — a 1991 Mercury Grand Marquis that was sold for salvage.

For comparison purposes, Laumann calculated first-year insurance costs for all the versions of the 2004 Honda Civic four-door sedan including the Civic Hybrid. Costs ranged from $835 to $849 for an average driver in the state of California with the Civic Hybrid falling near the middle at $844.

Like the other automakers, Toyota has also done a lot of testing of its hybrid-specific components. Its battery packs in particular have lasted for over 180,000 miles in testing. “We’ve looked at all the things that put stress on batteries, such as the discharge/charge cycles and extreme temperatures,” says Dave Hermance, executive engineer for environmental technology at Toyota.

When it comes to regular maintenance, most hybrids do not require any maintenance on the hybrid-specific components. One notable exception is an air filter on the Ford Escape Hybrid. “The air filter for the battery system needs to be replaced every 40,000 miles,” explained Olson.

The gasoline engine in a hybrid requires the same maintenance that it would if it were the only power source in the vehicle. That means oil changes every 5,000 to 10,000 miles depending on the vehicle and the driving conditions.

Another component that regularly needs to be replaced on every vehicle is the brake pads, but with hybrids these last much longer thanks to regenerative braking. In regenerative braking, the electric motor becomes a generator and captures the energy that would be lost as heat through the brakes when the vehicle’s brakes are applied or when it is coasting. Once the energy is captured, it is transformed into usable electricity, which recharges the batteries and in turn increases the number of miles than can be traveled per gallon of gasoline. An added benefit is that the reduced heat means less wear and tear on the brakes, which means that they don’t need to be replaced as often as conventional brakes. “We’ve seen customers go 85,000 miles before they needed to replace their brakes on their Prius vehicles,” says Toyota’s Hermance.

One of the top reasons that people purchase a hybrid vehicle is to get better fuel economy and they are often disappointed that they don’t experience the fuel economy numbers listed on the window sticker in their regular driving. “I just love my Honda Civic Hybrid, but I have been a bit disappointed that the gas mileage isn’t better,” says Ivey Doyal of Atlanta, Ga.



To be sure, differences in projected fuel economy versus real-world driving can mean serious differences in your wallet over the long term. Unfortunately, there is a discrepancy between the EPA’s fuel economy ratings, which are listed on the window sticker when you buy a new car or truck, and the real-world results that most drivers experience, regardless of the type of vehicle they drive. The EPA’s ratings are the numbers manufacturers are required by law to list in all the promotional materials for their vehicles. Unfortunately, the procedure the EPA uses to calculate these numbers is outdated and isn’t indicative of the way most Americans drive today. The EPA has made adjustments to its calculations to try to compensate for this. Even with these adjustments, however, the numbers still often differ from the real world. “We’ve seen where the typical driving style can be as much as 20-percent less than the EPA fuel economy number,” says Bienenfield.

While all vehicles are affected by this discrepancy, hybrid vehicles have the appearance of being affected even more so. “For example,” explains Bienenfield, “A vehicle that has a fuel economy rating of 20 mpg may only get 18 mpg, while a vehicle that is rated at 50 mpg may only get 45 mpg. This seems like a bigger issue for the more fuel-efficient vehicle, but in reality both vehicles are off by 10 percent.”

In the informal survey we did with Honda and Toyota hybrid owners, fuel economy numbers ranged from 33 to 49 mpg on average, which reflected many driving styles and a wide range of commutes. While these numbers are significantly lower than the EPA ratings, all the owners we interviewed were happy overall with the fuel economy as it is still better than most gasoline-only vehicles.

Perhaps what is most misleading about the fuel economy ratings is that they don’t show how widely numbers can vary based on an individual’s typical driving route. “Short trips are the harshest on fuel economy, so anyone who drives just a few miles in his typical trip will see lower mpg numbers than someone who drives, say, 15 miles to work,” says Bienenfield. Our unscientific poll showed these results as well. Pittsburgh, Pa., resident Jen Bannan typically drives just a few miles in each trip and, as a result, had the lowest fuel economy of those we interviewed, averaging 33 mpg in her 2002 Toyota Prius. “Is (the lower fuel economy) disappointing? Sure, but I’m still filling up less than I did in my old car and the Prius is the best car I’ve ever owned,” she said.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, Civic Hybrid driver Boughey and Honda Insight owner Dana Dorrity of Tivoli, N.Y., have commutes of 60 and 50 miles one way, respectively, on roads with rolling hills. Both had the highest fuel economy of those we spoke with, at 47 mpg for Boughey and 49 mpg for Dorrity. Poughkeepsie, N.Y., resident Mary Koniz Arnold has no trouble averaging 50 mpg in her 2001 Toyota Prius (which she bought used in April 2004) on longer trips, but she averages closer to 40 mpg during her one-way commute of 10 miles.

“To be fair,” says Toyota’s Hermance, “there is no way any two tests will give the range of consumer exposure in terms of driving conditions and temperatures. He continued, “We are really measuring the wrong thing. Since you don’t get to choose how many miles you drive, we should be measuring the gallons consumed.”

Reading this large variety of documentary reasons, the reader can understand better how difficult was the authors’ task to collect numerical data for their study.

Finally the authors made the following hypotheses:

; ; €; ; ;

km ICE or HSV / ICE car or HSV; ; l / 100 km ICE; ;

By using these data and the mathematical model previously presented, the functions (fig. 1), (fig. 2), (fig. 3), were calculated.

From the fig. 1 we can see how the state unitary subsidy of HSV [€ / 100 km] is influenced by total life cycle of a HSV, τHSV [km HSV/ HSV car]. The diagram was calculated with the values previously indicated and inserted in diagram field. The compared cost-to-quality analysis applied here shows us that:

1)    & 121d34b nbsp; The state unitary subsidy [€ / 100 km] is lowering when the total life cycle of HSV τHSV [km HSV/ HSV car] is increasing. In other words, the more resistant in time is HSV, the less is the necessary unitary state subsidy. How much must be this total life cycle of HSV so that the state subsidy to not be necessary? The calculus results shows = 830000 km for = 75000 km and =101500 km when = 93750 km. Of course, these results are unacceptable, we must have in view other practical solutions, like the fuel reduction ratio increasing      or to manufacture cheaper the HSV (the value

2)    & 121d34b nbsp; The fig. 1 diagram shows also that the less is the total life cycle of the ICE cars (the value ) the unitary state subsidy [€ / 100 km] is lower.

Fig. 1. The necessary subsidy [€/100km] versus the total life cycle of HSV [km HSV / HSV car].

Fig. 3. The necessary subsidy , [€/100 km] versus the unitary fuel cost [€ / l fuel].

8. FINAL CONCLUSION


According to the done study there is a real feasible solution to make HSV profitable in the next future. This solution is characterized by the following numerical parameters:

1. The total cost of HSV =13000 €;

2. The total cost of classical car, powered by internal combustion engine, 10000 €;

4. The operation-maintenance ratio of ICE car service (eq. 7), ;

5. The operation-maintenance ratio of ICE car product, (eq. 11) and-the operation-maintenance ratio of HSV product, (eq. 12) ;

6. The investment cost of the HSV, 4800 €;

3. The operation-maintenance ratio of HSV car service (eq. 8), ;

7. The consumption cost of the HSV, 4800 €;

8. The investment cost of the ICE car, 4000 €;

9. The consumption cost of the ICE car, 4000 €;

10. The unitary fuel consumption of ICE, = 7 l / 100 km;

11. The total life cycle of an ICE car, [km ICE / ICE car] and -the total life cycle of a HSV, [km HSV / HSV car] ==75000 km.


Of course, this is only one of the possible solutions. The done mathematical model presented here allows the modeling according to concrete possibilities the manufacturer has in order to achieve a better and better HSV. Modeling so, using the compared cost-to-quality analysis as work procedure, the authors are convinced that the best solution of a HSV is an ideal [12, 16, 17, 18], untouchable as any ideal, but an aim point for researchers.


REFERENCES

1. Arsie I., Di Domenico A., Marotta M., Pianese C., Rizzo G., Sorrentino M. (2005); A Parametric Study of the Design Variables for a Hybrid Electric Car with Solar Cells, Proc. of METIME Conference, June 2-3, 2005, University of Galati, RO.

2. Arsie I., Marotta M., Pianese C., Rizzo G., Sorrentino M. (2005); Optimal Design of a Hybrid Electric Car with Solar Cells, 1st AUTOCOM Workshop on Preventive and Active Safety Systems for Road Vehicles, Istanbul, Sept. 19-21, 2005.

3. Bejan A., e.a. (1996) – Thermal Design & Optimization, John Willey & Sons, New York

4. Frangopoulos, A. C, Caralis, C. Y., A method for taking into account environmental impacts in the economic evaluation of energy systems, Energy Conversion Management, Vol. 38, No. 15-17, 1997, pp. 1751-1763.

5. Juran, J. M., Godfrey, A. B., Juran’s Quality Handbook (5th Edition), McGraw-Hill, 1999.

6. Ionita, C. I., Termoeconomia, stiinta interdisciplinara de minimizare a costurilor produselor prin intermediul exergiei (Thermo-economics, the Interdisciplinary Science which Minimizes the Product Cost by Means of Exergy). Conferinta de Termotehnica, 1996, Iasi. Termotehnica romaneasca’96, vol. 1, pp. 35-39.

7. Ionita, C.I., Cernega, O., The Exergy-economic Analysis a Procedure to Minimize. Both the Products Costs and the Noxious. Emissions of the Power Plants. Heat Engines and Environmental Protection, 25-28 May, 1997, Proceedings, Tata, Hungary, pp. 233-239.

8. Ionita, C.I. ,About the Application of Extended Exergy Analysis to the Optimization of Industrial Systems Using Cost/Quality Ratio, ECOS 2000 Proceedings, University of Twente, Nederland, pp. 187-198.

9. Ionita C.I., The Close Connection between Cost and Quality of Energy Products, ECOS 2001, Istanbul, Proceedings, vol. 2, pp. 813-820.

10. Ionita, C.I., The Cost-to-Quality Evaluation and Optimization of the Heat Powered Systems, HPC’01 2nd International Heat Powered Cycles Conference, CNAM Paris, France, Proceedings vol. II, pp. 255-262.


11. Ionita, C.I., Popa. V. The Analysis of the hvac Systems Using Cost-to-Quality Criterion of Optimization, 7th REHVA World Congress Clima 2000, Napoli 2001, Proceedings on CD.

12. Ionita C.I. (2003), Engineering and Economic Optimization of Energy Production, International Journal of Energy Research, Article Reference No. 811, Journals Production Dept., 697-715 (DOI: 10.1002/er.811), John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK.

13. Ionita C.I., The Cost-to-Quality Ratio Based Optimization of the Energy Production, Entropie nr. 232, 2001, pp. 10-19.

14. Ionita, C.I., Extending thermo-economic analysis by cost to quality optimisation. Proceedings of ECOS 2002 July 3-5, 2002, Berlin, Germany, pp. 1434-1441.

15. Ionita C.I, Ion V.I. Cost-to-Quality Optimization of Refrigeration, NATO Advanced Study Institute, June 23-July 5, 2002, Altin Yunus-Cesme, Izmir-Turkiye, An International Meeting, Co-Directors: Prof S. Kakac and Prof. H. Smyrnov, ASI No.978410.

16. Ionita C.I., From Energy Analysis to Compared Cost-to-Quality Analysis of the Thermal Systems, Technical Sciences Academy of Romania, (2003), MOCM-9-vol.2, pp.149-155, ISSN 1224-7480.

17. Ionita C.I., Thermal Systems Optimization and Cost-to-Quality Analysis, International Journal of Heat and Technology”, vol. 22 nr. 1, 2004 pp. 27-37.

18. Ionita C.I., Beyond thermo-economic analysis of thermal systems: the compared cost-to-quality analysis, 1st International Conference on Thermal Engines and Environmental Engineering, METIME 2005, June 3-4, 2005, Galati, Romania.

19. https://www.toyota.co.jp/en

The Real Costs of Owning a Hybrid.

www.edmunds.com/advice/fueleconomy/articles/103708/article.html- 44k

https://www.hybrid-car.or






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